Working Papers

Visiting Professor, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University (2023)
C. Bryan Cameron Chair in International EconomicsDistinguished Professor of Economics and FinanceDepartment of EconomicsGraduate School of ManagementUniversity of California, Davis
Research AssociateNational Bureau of Economic Research
Research FellowCentre for Economic Policy Research
AddressDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of CaliforniaDavis CA
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Some NBER Working Papers may have since been published with revisions. For information, consult my c.v. or published papers.

Kopecky & Taylor, 2022, “The Savings Glut of the Old: Population Aging, the Risk Premium, and the Murder-Suicide of the Rentier.”  w29944.pdf

Sufi, Taylor “Financial Crises: A Survey   w29155.pdf

Caliendo, Feenstra, Romalis, Taylor “A Second-best Argument for Low Optimal Tariffs”   w28380.pdf

Jordà, Kornejew, Schularick, and Taylor “Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy”    w28197.pdf

Jacks, O’Rourke, and Taylor “The Gravitational Constant?”    w27904.pdf

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2020, “Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered.” w26962.pdf

Kopecky & Taylor, 2020, “The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium.”  w26943.pdf

Cloyne, Jordà, & Taylor, 2020, “Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier.”  w26939.pdf

Jordà,  Singh & Taylor, 2020, “Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics.” w26934.pdf

Jordà,  Singh & Taylor, 2020, “The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy.” w26666.pdf

Davis, Fuenzalida & Taylor, 2019, “The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r*”   w26560.pdf,

Davis & Taylor, 2019, “The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns”   w26435.pdf,

Benguria & Taylor, 2019, “After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade”   w25790.pdf,

O'Rourke, Rahman & Taylor, 2019, “Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence”   w25741.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2019, “The Total Risk Premium Puzzle,” w25653.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick, Taylor & Ward, 2018, Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums, w24677.pdf,

Jordà,  Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick & Taylor, 2017,  The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015, w24112.pdf

Choi & Taylor, 2017, Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate, w23341.pdf


Jordà, Richter, Schularick & Taylor, 2017, Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis, w23287.pdf


Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2017, The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments, w23074.pdf


Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2016, Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts, w22743.pdf


Aikman, Bush & Taylor, 2016, Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report,w22380.pdf


Caliendo, Feenstra, Romalis & Taylor, 2015, Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades , w21768.pdf


Taylor, 2015, Leveraged Bubbles, w21486.pdf


Taylor, 2015, Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy, w21039.pdf


Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2014, Betting the House, w20771.pdf


Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2014, The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles, w20501.pdf


Novy & Taylor, 2014, Trade and Uncertainty, w19941.pdf


Clark, O’Rourke & Taylor, 2014, The Growing Dependence of Britain on Trade during the Industrial Revolution, w19926.pdf


Taylor, 2014, The Argentina Paradox: Microexplanations and Macropuzzles, w19924.pdf


Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2013, Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences, w19506.pdf


Jordà & Taylor, 2013, The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy, w19414.pdf


Taylor, 2013, The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China,w18771.pdf


Taylor, 2012, External Imbalances and Financial Crises, w18606.pdf


della Paolera & Taylor, 2012, Sovereign Debt in Latin America, 1820–1913, w18363.pdf


Taylor, 2012, The Great Leveraging, w18290.pdf


Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2011, When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises, w17621.pdf


Jordà & Taylor, 2011, Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies, w17150.pdf


Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2010, Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons, w16567.pdf


Berge, Jordà & Taylor, 2010, Currency Carry Trades, w16491.pdf


Chong, Jordà & Taylor, 2009, The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium, w15868.pdf


Jordà & Taylor, 2009, The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself,w15518.pdf


Schularick & Taylor, 2009, Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870–2008, w15512.pdf


Taylor, 2009, The Global 1970s and the Echo of the Great Depression, w15475.pdf


Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, 2009, Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008, w14826.pdf


O’Rourke, Rahman & Taylor, 2008, Luddites and the Demographic Transition, w14484.pdf


Estevadeordal & Taylor, 2008, Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s-2000s, w14264.pdf


Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, 2008, Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves, w14217.pdf


Clark, O’Rourke & Taylor, 2008, Made in America? The New World, the Old, and the Industrial Revolution, w14077.pdf


O’Rourke, Rahman & Taylor, 2007, Trade, Knowledge, and the Industrial Revolution, w13057.pdf


Meissner & Taylor, 2006, Losing our Marbles in the New Century? The Great Rebalancing in Historical Perspective, w12580.pdf


Taylor & Wilson, 2006, International Trade and Finance under the Two Hegemons: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-30, w12543.pdf


O'Rourke & Taylor, 2006, Democracy and Protectionism, w12250.pdf


Chernyshoff, Jacks, & Taylor, 2005, Stuck on Gold: Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, w11795.pdf


Glick & Taylor, 2005, Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War,w11565.pdf


Taylor & Taylor, 2004, The Purchasing Power Parity Debate, w10607.pdf


Canjels, Prakash-Canjels & Taylor, 2004, Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913, w10583.pdf


Bergin, Glick & Taylor, 2004, Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle, w10569.pdf


Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, 2004, The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility, w10396.pdf


Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, 2004, Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period, w10393.pdf


Eichengreen & Taylor, 2003, The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas, w9666.pdf


Taylor, 2003, Foreign Capital in Latin America in the Nineteenth and   Twentieth Centuries, w9580.pdf


della Paolera & Taylor, 2002, Gaucho Banking Redux, w9457.pdf


Obstfeld & Taylor, 2002, Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913   versus 1925-31, w9345.pdf


Taylor, 2002, Globalization, Trade, and Development: Some Lessons from History, w9326.pdf


Estevadeordal, Frantz & Taylor, 2002, The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939, w9318.pdf


Taylor, 2002, A Century of Current Account Dynamics, w8927.pdf


Obstfeld & Taylor, 2002, Globalization and Capital Markets, w8846.pdf


Estevadeordal & Taylor, 2002, Testing Trade Theory in Ohlin's Time, w8842.pdf


McLean & Taylor, 2001, Australian Growth: A Californian Perspective, w8408.pdf


Estevadeordal & Taylor, 2001, A Century of Missing Trade?, w8301.pdf


Taylor, 2000, A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity, w8012.pdf


Taylor, 2000, Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price,w7577.pdf


Taylor, 1999, Latin America And Foreign Capital In The Twentieth Century: Economics, Politics, And Institutional Change, w7394.pdf


della Paolera & Taylor, 1999, Internal Versus External Convertibility and Developing-Country Financial Crises: Lessons from the Argentine Bank Bailout of the 1930s,w7386.pdf


Basu & Taylor, 1998, Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective, w7090.pdf


della Paolera & Taylor, 1998, Economic Recovery from the Argentine Great Depression: Institutions, Expectations, and the Change of Macroeconomic Regime, w6767.pdf


Taylor, 1997, Argentina and the World Capital Market: Saving, Investment, and International Capital Mobility in the Twentieth Century, w6302.pdf


della Paolera & Taylor, 1997, Finance and Development in an Emerging Market: Argentina in the Interwar Period, w6236.pdf


Prakash & Taylor, 1997, Measuring Market Integration: A Model of Arbitrage with an Econometric Application to the Gold Standard, 1880-1913, w6073.pdf


Obstfeld & Taylor, 1997, Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited, w6053.pdf


Obstfeld & Taylor, 1997, The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility in the Long Run, w5960.pdf


Taylor, 1997, Latifundia as Malefactor in Economic Development? Scale, Tenancy, and Agriculture on the Pampas, 1880-1914, h0096.pdf


Taylor, 1996, Convergence and International Factor Flows in Theory and History,w5798.pdf


Taylor, 1996, Sources of Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century, w5806.pdf


Taylor, 1996, International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship, w5743.pdf


Taylor, 1996, International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing Power Parity in the Long-Run, w5742.pdf


Taylor, 1996, On the Costs of Inward-Looking Development: Price Distortions, Growth, and Divergence in Latin America, w5432.pdf


Taylor, 1995, Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region: On the Role of Openness, Trade and Migration, w5276.pdf


Taylor, 1995, Peopling the Pampa: On the Impact of Mass Migration to the River Plate, 1870-1914, h0068.pdf


Taylor, 1994, Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered, w4892.pdf


Taylor, 1994, Three Phases of Argentine Economic Growth, h0060.pdf


Taylor & Williamson, 1994, Convergence in the Age of Mass Migration, w4711.pdf


O'Rourke, Taylor & Williamson, 1993, Land, Labor and the Wage-Rental Ratio: Factor Price Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century, h0046.pdf


Taylor & Williamson, 1991, Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer, h0032.pdf