Working Papers

Distinguished Professor of Economics and FinanceDepartment of EconomicsGraduate School of ManagementUniversity of California, Davis
Research AssociateNational Bureau of Economic Research
Research FellowCentre for Economic Policy Research
AddressDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of CaliforniaDavis CA
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Some NBER Working Papers may have since been published with revisions. For information, consult my c.v. or published papers.

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2020, “Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered.” w26962.pdf

Kopecky & Taylor, 2020, “The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium.” w26943.pdf

Cloyne, Jordà, & Taylor, 2020, “Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier.” w26939.pdf

Jordà, Singh & Taylor, 2020, “Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics.” w26934.pdf

Jordà, Singh & Taylor, 2020, “The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy.” w26666.pdf

Davis, Fuenzalida & Taylor, 2019, “The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r*” w26560.pdf,

Davis & Taylor, 2019, “The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns” w26435.pdf,

Benguria & Taylor, 2019, “After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade” w25790.pdf,

O'Rourke, Rahman & Taylor, 2019, “Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence” w25741.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2019, “The Total Risk Premium Puzzle,” w25653.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick, Taylor & Ward, 2018, Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums, w24677.pdf,

Jordà, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick & Taylor, 2017, The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015, w24112.pdf,

Choi & Taylor, 2017, Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate, w23341.pdf,

Jordà, Richter, Schularick & Taylor, 2017, Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis, w23287.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2017, The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments, w23074.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2016, Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts, w22743.pdf,

Aikman, Bush & Taylor, 2016, Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report,w22380.pdf,

Caliendo, Feenstra, Romalis & Taylor, 2015, Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades , w21768.pdf,

Taylor, 2015, Leveraged Bubbles, w21486.pdf,

Taylor, 2015, Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy, w21039.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2014, Betting the House, w20771.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2014, The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles, w20501.pdf,

Novy & Taylor, 2014, Trade and Uncertainty, w19941.pdf,

Clark, O’Rourke & Taylor, 2014, The Growing Dependence of Britain on Trade during the Industrial Revolution, w19926.pdf,

Taylor, 2014, The Argentina Paradox: Microexplanations and Macropuzzles, w19924.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2013, Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences, w19506.pdf,

Jordà & Taylor, 2013, The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy, w19414.pdf,

Taylor, 2013, The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China,w18771.pdf,

Taylor, 2012, External Imbalances and Financial Crises, w18606.pdf,

della Paolera & Taylor, 2012, Sovereign Debt in Latin America, 1820–1913, w18363.pdf,

Taylor, 2012, The Great Leveraging, w18290.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2011, When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises, w17621.pdf,

Jordà & Taylor, 2011, Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies, w17150.pdf,

Jordà, Schularick & Taylor, 2010, Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons, w16567.pdf,

Berge, Jordà & Taylor, 2010, Currency Carry Trades, w16491.pdf,

Chong, Jordà & Taylor, 2009, The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium, w15868.pdf,

Jordà & Taylor, 2009, The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself,w15518.pdf,

Schularick & Taylor, 2009, Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870–2008, w15512.pdf,

Taylor, 2009, The Global 1970s and the Echo of the Great Depression, w15475.pdf,

Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, 2009, Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008, w14826.pdf,

O’Rourke, Rahman & Taylor, 2008, Luddites and the Demographic Transition, w14484.pdf,

Estevadeordal & Taylor, 2008, Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s-2000s, w14264.pdf,

Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, 2008, Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves, w14217.pdf,

Clark, O’Rourke & Taylor, 2008, Made in America? The New World, the Old, and the Industrial Revolution, w14077.pdf,

O’Rourke, Rahman & Taylor, 2007, Trade, Knowledge, and the Industrial Revolution, w13057.pdf,

Meissner & Taylor, 2006, Losing our Marbles in the New Century? The Great Rebalancing in Historical Perspective, w12580.pdf,

Taylor & Wilson, 2006, International Trade and Finance under the Two Hegemons: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-30, w12543.pdf,

O'Rourke & Taylor, 2006, Democracy and Protectionism, w12250.pdf,

Chernyshoff, Jacks, & Taylor, 2005, Stuck on Gold: Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, w11795.pdf,

Glick & Taylor, 2005, Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War,w11565.pdf,

Taylor & Taylor, 2004, The Purchasing Power Parity Debate, w10607.pdf,

Canjels, Prakash-Canjels & Taylor, 2004, Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913, w10583.pdf,

Bergin, Glick & Taylor, 2004, Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle, w10569.pdf,

Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, 2004, The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility, w10396.pdf,

Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, 2004, Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period, w10393.pdf,

Eichengreen & Taylor, 2003, The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas, w9666.pdf,

Taylor, 2003, Foreign Capital in Latin America in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries, w9580.pdf,

della Paolera & Taylor, 2002, Gaucho Banking Redux, w9457.pdf,

Obstfeld & Taylor, 2002, Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31, w9345.pdf,

Taylor, 2002, Globalization, Trade, and Development: Some Lessons from History, w9326.pdf,

Estevadeordal, Frantz & Taylor, 2002, The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939, w9318.pdf,

Taylor, 2002, A Century of Current Account Dynamics, w8927.pdf,

Obstfeld & Taylor, 2002, Globalization and Capital Markets, w8846.pdf,

Estevadeordal & Taylor, 2002, Testing Trade Theory in Ohlin's Time, w8842.pdf,

McLean & Taylor, 2001, Australian Growth: A Californian Perspective, w8408.pdf,

Estevadeordal & Taylor, 2001, A Century of Missing Trade?, w8301.pdf,

Taylor, 2000, A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity, w8012.pdf,

Taylor, 2000, Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price,w7577.pdf,

Taylor, 1999, Latin America And Foreign Capital In The Twentieth Century: Economics, Politics, And Institutional Change, w7394.pdf,

della Paolera & Taylor, 1999, Internal Versus External Convertibility and Developing-Country Financial Crises: Lessons from the Argentine Bank Bailout of the 1930s,w7386.pdf,

Basu & Taylor, 1998, Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective, w7090.pdf,

della Paolera & Taylor, 1998, Economic Recovery from the Argentine Great Depression: Institutions, Expectations, and the Change of Macroeconomic Regime, w6767.pdf,

Taylor, 1997, Argentina and the World Capital Market: Saving, Investment, and International Capital Mobility in the Twentieth Century, w6302.pdf,

della Paolera & Taylor, 1997, Finance and Development in an Emerging Market: Argentina in the Interwar Period, w6236.pdf,

Prakash & Taylor, 1997, Measuring Market Integration: A Model of Arbitrage with an Econometric Application to the Gold Standard, 1880-1913, w6073.pdf,

Obstfeld & Taylor, 1997, Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited, w6053.pdf,

Obstfeld & Taylor, 1997, The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility in the Long Run, w5960.pdf,

Taylor, 1997, Latifundia as Malefactor in Economic Development? Scale, Tenancy, and Agriculture on the Pampas, 1880-1914, h0096.pdf,

Taylor, 1996, Convergence and International Factor Flows in Theory and History,w5798.pdf,

Taylor, 1996, Sources of Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century, w5806.pdf,

Taylor, 1996, International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship, w5743.pdf,

Taylor, 1996, International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing Power Parity in the Long-Run, w5742.pdf,

Taylor, 1996, On the Costs of Inward-Looking Development: Price Distortions, Growth, and Divergence in Latin America, w5432.pdf,

Taylor, 1995, Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region: On the Role of Openness, Trade and Migration, w5276.pdf,

Taylor, 1995, Peopling the Pampa: On the Impact of Mass Migration to the River Plate, 1870-1914, h0068.pdf,

Taylor, 1994, Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered, w4892.pdf,

Taylor, 1994, Three Phases of Argentine Economic Growth, h0060.pdf,

Taylor & Williamson, 1994, Convergence in the Age of Mass Migration, w4711.pdf,

O'Rourke, Taylor & Williamson, 1993, Land, Labor and the Wage-Rental Ratio: Factor Price Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century, h0046.pdf,

Taylor & Williamson, 1991, Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer, h0032.pdf,